Economic instability, political tensions and exchange rate fluctuations suggest what will happen to the dollar in 2020 and how this will affect the ruble’s positions. The official expert opinion of domestic experts and forecasts of independent Western analysts do not always coincide. Sometimes their conclusions are fundamentally opposite, so attention should be paid to both sides. But first you need to determine the factors affecting the US currency.
The exchange rate depends on the following factors:
- The policy of the Central Bank of Russia. Currently, the Central Bank buys dollars on exchanges, directing for these purposes the proceeds from the sale of oil and gas. The situation does not help strengthen the ruble. At the same time, in order to formally contain the devaluation, the Central Bank raised its key rate to 7.75%.
- Inflation. The higher its level, the more the national currency depreciates.
- The cost of oil in the world market. At the end of last year, OPEC was able to come to an agreement and reduce its production volumes. This was supposed to stimulate a rise in the price of "black gold", but the foreign exchange market did not respond. Experts explain the current situation by the fact that new participants appear on the oil market, proposals are growing.
- The influx of investment. The Russian economy is sensitive to the inflow and outflow of foreign capital. The trend towards its outflow, which was outlined in 2015, continues, which negatively affects the position of the ruble.
- Anti-Russian sanctions. First of all, they reduce the investment attractiveness of the Russian market for foreign business. Potential investors fear the introduction of tougher sanctions and wait, not wanting to take risks.
Weakening or falling
Analysts' opinions on what will happen to the dollar in Russia in 2020 do not add optimism. They foresee two scenarios:
- ruble depreciation;
- critical depreciation of the national currency.
The second scenario is possible if the EU and the US decide to tighten economic sanctions amid falling oil prices. In this situation, 1 dollar will cost 80 rubles in 2-3 days.
If tightening of economic sanctions does not follow, experts do not rule out an increase in investment interest. It will be insignificant, as representatives of foreign business will need time to analyze and make a decision, which can take months or years.
One of the main risks financial analysts call the dynamics in the oil market. A further fall in prices will weaken the ruble, this will not be avoided.
The official forecast for the dynamics of the dollar for 2020 differs among different departments.
- The course of 67.5 for $ 1 is predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. The Ministry clarifies that the average value will be revised in April this year.
- Sberbank of the Russian Federation has more optimistic figures - 58-59, but with the caveat that inflation will not exceed 4%.
- Analysts at the HSE Development Center believe that next year they will give 62 for $ 1.
- Western financiers predict a serious decline in the Russian national currency. In particular, American bankers promise its fall to 80-85 for $ 1. They have no doubt that toughening of sanctions will follow and provoke such a course of events.
- According to Raiffeisenbank experts, the fall in oil prices will begin in mid-summer. The cost of a barrel will drop to $ 50, and the dollar will rise in price to 80.
- Analyzing the forecasts of domestic and Western analysts, we can say that the ruble will not be able to strengthen. There will be a recession, but how sharp and painful will its trajectory be? The runaway of the values of 65-85 rubles is significant, it is unlikely that at least one financier will announce the exact numbers today.
By external factors, he means, in particular, the economic pressure of the West. According to Mironov, the depreciation of the ruble will not exceed 4%, but for this it is necessary that the price of oil be kept in the region of $ 60 per barrel for at least 3 years.
"Black Gold" will become cheaper
Employees of the Ministry of Economic Development are less optimistic and more cautious in their forecasts. They consider the most probable drop in oil prices to $ 40. Based on this assumption, the Ministry announced the probable rate of 68 rubles per 1 dollar.
The question arises, how will the foreign exchange market react to rising barrel prices, although this is unlikely? Or is such a trajectory not considered?
Independent financial analysts are more inclined towards a smooth depreciation of the ruble. At the same time, even a rise in the price of a barrel of oil will not have a significant effect on it. A further fall will further weaken the national currency. This situation is due to the lack of effective tools for resolving the situation at the state level. In fact, in the hands of the state there are only fiscal instruments.
Forex market analysts see the Russian government's interest in a weak national currency and explain this interest with export benefits. How? If the global economy begins to grow, and this growth is stable, then the demand for natural resources will increase. In this situation, the position of the ruble will significantly strengthen.
Dollar is vulnerable
The American national currency, like any other, reacts sharply to trends that have emerged in the global financial market. The collapse of the dollar is not excluded - on the contrary, it is inevitable if large economies refuse it in favor of settlements in national currency.
The Russian government has repeatedly stated its intention to export domestic products for rubles and adheres to the intended line. If the Russian Federation succeeds in becoming an equal financial partner and strengthening its influence in the global financial market, then a dollar decline to the level of 55-56 rubles is not ruled out.
Will have to agree
In the meantime, the Russian Federation will have to strengthen the position of the national currency in all possible ways. And for a start - to seek a compromise with the countries included in OPEC. They will have to agree to stabilize the price of oil and the exchange rate of national currencies.
Last time, an agreement was reached - the market reacted to this by increasing the cost of a barrel to $ 86. Will it be possible to find a compromise that suits all players, to keep “black gold” at the level of not less than $ 60 - time will tell.
If a solution is not reached, the Russians need to prepare for an economic downturn. However, a critical situation, similar to 1998, will not happen - financiers and analysts are sure of this.
The reason is internal economic changes, albeit minimal, but growth. Western experts rate macroeconomic indicators quite high.
The primary task of the government is to avoid sharp collapses in the cost of oil, so that the Ministry of Finance has a margin of time to increase the foreign exchange reserve. In the context of the global financial crisis, the beginning of which experts predict next year, it certainly will not hurt.