61 or 66 rubles - the forecast for the dollar for 2020 jumps in the specified interval. Experts cite many factors, one of which is the Fed meeting, which should be held at the end of this month.
Expert forecasts - whether the ruble will hold its position or bend under the dollar
Almost ten percent is the growth of the Russian ruble against the North American dollar since the beginning of this year. Moreover, the current rate is slightly lower than ₽63 for one bucks, but experts' forecasts are not so positive - the vacation period is ahead, which means that the ruble may fall again. In addition, August is traditionally considered not the most successful month for the domestic currency. However, serious shocks can be avoided if the basic scenario is implemented.
"The dollar / ruble pair may return to the range of 64-65, and the euro / ruble may settle over the 71.50 area in the absence of significant shocks," said Alexander Timofeev, who holds the position of head of analytical department at Inst Invest Invest.
The main threat to the "wooden" analysts is still called anti-Russian sanctions, which Western countries can again resort to. But not only sanctions threaten the stability of the Russian economy. Another factor on which currency quotes depend is oil.
Dynamics of the ruble / dollar pair - table by summer months
At the beginning of the second half of the year, the dollar reached annual lows. Despite the rather long positive dynamics (below the table by months), experts are not sure that the trend will continue in August.
Dynamics of the RUB / USD pair since the beginning of summer (CBR data)
The main factors that will affect the ruble, experts call the following:
- deterioration in the balance of payments;
- holiday season - the population will actively buy currency;
- decrease in stock market activity.
Analysts call the probable range at the end of the summer $ 63-65 per dollar, $ 70.15-73 per euro.
How Fed and CBR Decisions Will Affect the Global Economy
At the end of July, a regular Fed meeting is due to be held, which investors around the world are waiting for decisions. Shortly before this, a domestic bank should also make its decision on the size of the key rate.
Analysts believe that the Bank of Russia will keep the rate at the same level. However, periodic statements by the CBR about a possible decrease may positively affect investor interest and their injections into the stock market.
As for the US Fed, the decision to lower rates would entail a weakening dollar. As a result, we should expect a surge in investor interest in risky assets, which also include the Russian ruble.
Thus, these two decisions, if they justify the forecasts of experts, will support the domestic currency.
Analyst Prediction and Factors That Affect Fed Decision
If the Fed decides to lower the key rate, then this will become a rather significant event, as this will happen for the first time in ten years. The main prerequisites for such an outcome, experts call:
- trade wars;
- the threat of a slowdown in global GDP growth;
- the risk of default on loans issued in dollars in developing countries;
- the desire of the American leader to weaken the national currency.
It is expected that a decrease will occur at least 0.25 percentage points, however, analysts' forecast predicts the second stage of the decrease by another 0.25 bp
Ministry of Economic Development - inflation slowed, and salaries began to rise
The Fed’s decision to lower the key rate is associated with the opportunity to improve the US economy. A low rate means cheap loans, which means stimulating investment in production, increasing employment, rising wages, demand and inflation of 2%.
Similar measures were taken in 2007-2008, when the economic crisis was raging in the world. Then the rate decreased from 5.25% to 0.25%. Over the years, the Fed began a gradual increase, reaching 2.5%. The last change took place at the end of last year and at the same time the Federal Reserve announced that in 2019 it is planned to double the key rate. However, now the rhetoric has changed and, instead of another increase, the world is waiting for a decline.
If we talk about Russia, the Ministry of Economic Development published a survey according to which wages are rising (2.3% in the second quarter), inflation is slowing (4.5%) and unemployment is falling (4.6%).
Exchange in Moscow - what is the forecast for the ruble exchange rate
If such a decision is made overseas and the key rate is reduced, this will have a positive effect not only on exchange trading in Moscow and the Russian ruble exchange rate, but also on the global economy as a whole. As a result, demand for investments will increase, as well as for raw and risky assets. Of course, this is beneficial for Russia as well - the need for energy will increase, prices for exported goods will rise, and the flow of funds to the country will increase. Because cheap loans will allow you to invest more in production and increase the output of goods that require more energy and raw materials.
Even the information about a possible reduction in the key rate had a positive effect on currency quotes - the dollar was trading at almost $ 70, and now it’s slightly less than $ 63. But experts warn that a significant effect has already occurred and you should not expect a sharp decline in the dollar in the future. But if the Fed decides to change the key rate not at the end of July, but later, then this may put pressure on the ruble, and it will begin to fall again.
How the actions of the Ministry of Finance affect the economy in Russia
The option of reducing the key rate is also being considered by the domestic Central Bank. As a result, the country will receive a weak ruble amid low economic growth rates. Analysts are sure that the low rate in Russia will help to improve the economy, but the combination of multidirectional drivers will not allow the domestic ruble to strengthen.
The actions of the Ministry of Finance, which have already become traditional, also influence the course of the “wooden” one. It is known that since the beginning of July, the department significantly reduced the volume of currency purchases - if earlier, 16.3 billion rubles a day were spent on these purposes, now it’s only ten billion. Experts believe that this is a proactive game that will reduce the volatility of ruble quotes.
Latest news about oil, dollar and ruble
According to the latest news, the ruble should not expect special support from black gold. Oil quotes grew only against the background of a decline in US stocks, but in general the situation is not so rosy.
As for geopolitical factors, this is certainly a future meeting of the Fed, on the decision of which not only the ruble, but also other risky assets depends.
In general, according to analysts, the most likely range for the RUB / USD pair by the end of the year is ₽61.5-66. At the same time, they note that in early August, adjustments are possible in the corridor of ₽64.5-65.5 for one dollar.